May 28, 2008

global oil demand ends easy life

Now that peak oil is coinciding with peak demand from the new global giants of China and India, Kitty is glad that she sold her car and relocated to a cheaper home near public transport years ago but she fears that what remains of her good life is about to come to an abrupt end due to an upcoming global battle for the last barrel of oil (that the West won’t win).

"We've been warned for decades that we're heading for a fuel crisis but nobody believed the boffins or did anything about it -- least of all the government -- we were all so hooked on oil and the easy life,” says Kitty. "Global Big Oil and Auto lobbies must have paid an awful lot of money to stop the government from putting laws into place encouraging alternative fuel sources and modes of transport. Either that, or these lobbies are secretly run by foreign powers who deliberately engineered our demise so that they can take over.”

"I learned the hard way (tech bust job loss before 9/11) that driving my own vehicle is a luxury, not a right or a necessity, and I think a lot of people -- not just low income earners -- are now going to have to face that fact, too."

"With the suburban sprawl spawned by car ownership and cheap fuel, heaps of people are now in trouble because they live too far from public transport."

"Suburban house prices are already rock-bottom thanks to the subprime fiasco, so anyone wanting to sell up and move closer to their workplaces will either have to take a huge loss or rot forever in a place that nobody wants to buy," sighs Kitty. “If people cannot afford to run their cars -- or if the fuel supply is restricted -- how are people going to get to work? And how many businesses will go bust, laying off millions of workers, because of rising fuel costs?”

"I suppose I'm lucky that I sold up and bought in the city seven years ago -- before the massive house price increases,” says Kitty, “and while I’m okay, sort of, I don’t feel too happy about rising food prices -- everything depends on oil, not just transportation but fertilizer, too -- and if I don’t get a pay rise I will be right back where I started seven years ago, having to give up something else as a luxury that I’ve always thought a necessity. What I don’t know, but probably health insurance because it’s my biggest expense right now.”

“Globalization has raised the rest of the world up -- mostly at our expense (in terms of offshored jobs, free trade and overseas development aid which we are still paying to China believe it or not!) -- and now most of us are little better off than the average Chinese or Indian worker, and in many cases a lot worse off judging by the astronomical number of Chinese and Indian tourists flying around the world.”

“With India and China powering up to match if not surpass our fuel needs -- and the rest of the developing nations not far behind -- it stands to reason that with oil supplies already depleted the price of oil will skyrocket (and with it everything else).”

“Everyone concedes, now, that the Iraq invasion was about securing our oil supply and had nothing to do with spreading democracy and, as oil extraction dwindles, there is going to be worse social-political tension around the world than there is already with everyone vying for the last barrel.”

“Honestly, I see massive trouble ahead and it’s all because we bought a dream of an easy life fuelled by cheap oil and infected the Third World with this dream, too, via globalization,” sighs Kitty. “The western world is in debt up to its eyes and China leads the world, followed by India, in purchasing power. There’s no way we can convert to new technologies in time to avert our demise and the shift in world power. We’re finished.”

“Those of us who live in colder climates are going to have to revert to coal or wood to keep us warm in the winter and that’s not going to sit well with the PC climate change crowd, is it?” laughs Kitty. “But when the crunch comes all that climate change propaganda will evaporate – we’ll be fighting for survival, won’t we?”

“All of this reminds me of what happened on Easter Island -- a whole nation died out because nobody had the nous to work out that when the last tree was chopped down they had no means of survival.”

“I guess fifty years ago the world leaders never imagined that China and India with their massive populations would emerge from poverty and grasp the good life with as much if not more greed than we did,” laughs Kitty, “but that’s what globalization is all about, isn’t it?”

“Were our leaders stupid then, or didn’t they care, knowing that they wouldn’t be around to see the good times end?” asks Kitty. “And, to believe that a show of force in oil rich countries is enough to scare them into giving us, rather than other countries, the lion’s share of a scarce commodity is more stupidity.”

“Using superior brute force may have worked centuries ago, but now that we’ve embraced globalization and given away everything, including the secrets of nuclear armaments, we’re no longer superior.”

“Start learning Chinese, guys, you’re going to need it.”

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